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CS2 trade-up calculator

Plan your CS2 trade-up contract. Calculate output float ranges, skin probabilities, and expected value before you commit.

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Mil-Spec → Restricted

Inputs (0/10)

Add 10 skins to calculate the trade-up outcome.

Trade-up outcome

Add 10 more inputs to see results

Float formula

1. normalized = (float - min) / (max - min)
2. avg = sum(normalized) / 10
3. output = outMin + avg × (outMax - outMin)

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What this calculator does

Predict the outcome of a CS2 trade-up contract before you commit skins.

Select 10 input skins from CS2 collections, set their float values, and optionally add prices. The calculator shows every possible output skin, its probability, predicted float range, and expected value.

Inputs: 10 skins of the same rarity from any collections, float values, and optional market prices.

Output: Possible output skins with probabilities, float prediction, wear tier, and expected value.

Limitations: Market prices are estimates and change constantly. Float prediction uses the game's deterministic formula, but actual results can vary by a small margin. StatTrak and Souvenir versions are not listed separately.

How the float formula works

Trade-up output floats are deterministic. The game uses a 3-step calculation.

CS2 trade-up contracts produce a predictable output float from your 10 input skins. Since the October 22, 2025 update, the game normalizes each input against its own min/max range, which is what this calculator uses.

Step one: normalize each input. If you have an AK-47 Redline with a 0.15 float and the Redline's range is 0.10 to 0.70, the normalized value is (0.15 - 0.10) / (0.70 - 0.10) = 0.083. A skin at its minimum possible float always normalizes to 0.

Step two: average all 10 normalized values. Step three: map that average onto the output skin's float range. If the output has a range of 0.00 to 0.50 and the average is 0.083, the predicted output float is 0.00 + 0.083 × 0.50 = 0.042 (Factory New).

Regular vs. knife trade-ups

Two trade-up modes with different rules.

Regular

10 inputs, one rarity higher.

  • Consumer → Industrial → Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert.
  • All 10 inputs must be the same rarity tier.
  • Output is drawn from collections of the input skins.
  • More inputs from one collection = higher chance of output from that collection.

Knife / Glove

5 Covert inputs, Extraordinary output.

  • Only 5 inputs needed (all Covert rarity).
  • Outputs come from collections represented by the inputs.
  • Regular contracts can produce a knife or gloves item; StatTrak™ contracts produce a StatTrak™ knife.
  • The calculator doesn't model StatTrak™, so gloves appear in the outcomes whenever an input's case has them.
  • Expected value is almost always negative. Treat it as gambling.
  • Added in the October 22, 2025 update.

For both modes, all inputs must share the same StatTrak status. Since the May 22, 2026 update, Souvenir skins can be mixed with normal-quality skins, and the output is always normal quality. The calculator does not list StatTrak or Souvenir versions separately, so select the base skin.

Methodology and sources

How float predictions and probabilities are calculated.

Float formula: each input is normalized as (float − skin_min) / (skin_max − skin_min), the 10 normalized values are averaged, and output_float = out_min + avg_normalized × (out_max − out_min). This is the post-October 2025 trade-up calculation, verified by community testing because Valve has not published it. Background on contracts: Counter-Strike Wiki. Trade-up rule changes come from the official CS2 update notes (October 22, 2025 and May 22, 2026).

Probability: Each input adds every next-rarity skin from its own collection to one shared pool. A skin's chance is the number of inputs from its collection divided by the pool size, which is the sum of (inputs from each collection × possible outcomes in that collection). Knife and glove contracts build the pool from the knives and gloves in each input collection's case.

Collection data: Skin and float range data sourced from the Steam Community Market and CS2 game files.

Last reviewed: Trade-up rules checked September 2026.

CS2 trade-up questions

Common questions about trade-up contracts, floats, and the calculator.

Each input float is normalized to a 0-1 scale based on that skin's min/max float range. The 10 normalized values are averaged, then mapped onto the output skin's float range. The formula: output = outMin + avgNormalized × (outMax - outMin).
A skin's chance equals the number of inputs from its collection divided by the size of the outcome pool. Each input adds every next-rarity skin from its own collection to that pool, so the pool size is the sum of (inputs from a collection × possible outcomes in that collection). Example: 5 inputs from a collection with 1 possible outcome plus 5 inputs from a collection with 4 possible outcomes make a pool of 5×1 + 5×4 = 25. Each of the 5 outcomes holds 5 of those 25 entries, so each one has a 20% chance.
Since the October 22, 2025 update, each input float is normalized against that skin's own min/max range instead of being averaged raw. Valve did not list this in the patch notes; community testing after the update confirmed it. A 0.10 float on an AK-47 Redline (min 0.10) is the lowest possible value for that skin and normalizes to 0. The same update added 5-Covert knife and glove trade-ups. The calculator uses the post-update formula.
Since the October 22, 2025 update, Covert skins can trade up to an Extraordinary item using 5 inputs instead of 10. Five regular Covert inputs can produce a regular knife or gloves item from a collection represented by the inputs. In game, five StatTrak™ Covert inputs produce a StatTrak™ knife and can't produce gloves. This calculator doesn't model StatTrak™. It lists gloves whenever an input's case contains them, so its odds match regular contracts only.
The float prediction is deterministic and matches the game formula exactly. Odds use the pooled outcome model, where each input adds every next-rarity skin from its collection to one shared pool. If you find a result that doesn't match an in-game trade-up, report it.
All inputs must share the same StatTrak status. If every input is StatTrak, the output will be StatTrak. You cannot mix StatTrak and non-StatTrak skins in the same contract.
EV is the average profit or loss per contract if you ran it many times. Positive EV means profitable on average. It's calculated as: sum of (probability × output price) minus total input cost. A positive EV doesn't guarantee profit on any single contract.
Yes, since the May 22, 2026 update. Souvenir skins can be mixed with normal-quality skins in the same contract. Souvenir attributes, including stickers, are removed, and the output is always a normal-quality item one rarity higher. The calculator does not list Souvenir versions separately, so select the normal version of each skin. Rules checked September 2026.

Related guides

Float mechanics, contract strategy, and trade-up math explained.

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